Tuesday, November 23, 2010

China's stock market will affect the situation as a whole

 China's stock market will affect the situation as a whole (not Zhuanzhai)
China has never been more important before. Originated in China, concerns about the stimulus plan may stop (market rumors in August plunged new credit),UGGs, which led to the Chinese stock market crash may be the March 7 big rebound into the global market since Guaixiang.
boom in global demand for 40% of the incremental contribution of the China factor, and now 90% of global incremental Chinese. China If quit, global capital will not find a direction. emerging markets, stock market,UGG boots clearance, commodity market funds may be getaway, only to return to U.S. Treasuries, considered a solution to help around Geithner and Bernanke .
China's economy may be facing a short series of Duo Mile domino effect.
stock lying, the property must lie,Bailey UGG boots, developers or to give up the investment, the government's economic stimulus months behind bars if the room Real Estate can not access (short term will not enter private industry's.) economy may be sooner than expected secondary back.
policy makers can tolerate it? 9 months ago, should think of it all Yeah. since we know that monetary stimulus medicine, is not easy to eat the broken, why did more than this volatility,UGG shoes, it consumes so much wealth?
if China stopped now, to turn to promote domestic structural reform.
long talk, of course, is a good thing.
but certainly short term pain, short-term effects of structural reforms is shrinking because of falling asset prices, excess capacity is necessary to clean, straighten out the price and the monopoly of reform, if not able to do so simultaneously, which means the cost of the resource tax will be passed on to downstream enterprises, or head.
course, if the speed up to break the monopoly of good faith, open to private investment, big efforts to nurture small and medium private enterprises (short-term tax cuts and even tax-free), speed up domestic residents, government, business and residents and between residents of the adjustment on the distribution of wealth, and tap domestic demand, which produces a positive effect will gradually reduce and even eliminate excess capacity override the pain of cleaning.
time depend on the pain courage and determination. But after a pain, China is likely to usher in the 1982 to 2007, similar to the U.S. for 25 years for stocks, bonds and real estate market, bull market.
want the stock back up shortly, it is easy , re-release on it. but go up then? will fall next time the scene today, in the economic model did not appear before the new wealth, market rules should be zero, and (one or the other), while not a buy and hold. market in addition to liquidity, investors did nothing to nostalgia.

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