A share in the second half of 2008 kicked off, A shares fell 48% in six months, the Shanghai index has fallen below three lines, A shares have become the world's worst performing stock market million. At the same time, Zhou Xiaochuan, the line Long said that to raise interest rates to anti-inflation, the industrial profit growth is still falling, and that this time the confidence of investors how to restore? the judgments of the market outlook, and speculation followed, Hunan TV's held during Dawn it? heated debate a few experts.
empty Fangjia Bin: Zhang multi-satellite Pan Xiangdong Guests: Water Paper universal
multi-room Guest: Hong Yuan Securities chief macroeconomic analyst at room Four Seas, Paper
empty Fangjia Bin: chief macroeconomic analyst at Everbright Securities, High German gold president of Pan Xiangdong Zhang satellite
Li Nan: Good evening, welcome to listen to me tonight, very Avenue, today is our program invited several famous stock market to explore the A-share market.
raise oil prices ease worries
Macroeconomics universal multi-guest room: June 20 oil price increase, I think this news is good news, why say so? because we that in the current one case, all of China's Niu Bizi macro policy is energy policy, let us recall the past, we have gaps in China's economic growth, spur economic growth, is low energy consumption, to increase the competitiveness of Chinese products, in fact, activity is limited to subsidize oil, and then also created one, is such a China, so the context of oil prices in the Highlands, the higher the price of crude oil demand of our more prosperous, this background is below the high international crude oil prices One of the reasons, one mentioned that the adjustment of prices of refined oil in China, the international crude oil prices down, should be broken 130, but this little bit late, but I do not think that was late, I think, after the Olympics, but also provide additional oil prices 20% to 30%, and slowly the refined oil prices may be with the international standards. In such a context, we made a CPI of such a prediction, if China does not adjust the prices of refined oil, then the next year's CPI certainly higher than this year, so CPI is actually man-made pressures made a lake. multi-guest room Four Seas: The CPI is concerned, like the Da Yu, blocking as sparse, so that if today a further increase CPI, the year once again raise prices of refined oil, then the next year's CPI lower than this year, so my assessment is that the operation of the Chinese economy in reducing the risk, then the second half of next year, or even farther away, then the currency markets are gradually relaxed. then again an improved CPI, that according to our model, this increase of 18% refined oil prices, then after the Olympics, CPI up, and then raise interest rates; now even though the broader market, although profitability is deteriorating, but the current broad market price fully reflects the the fact that such a deterioration in profitability.
Li Nan: So the worst has been reflected, so you think the judge, we are now dawn, and then the three we have seen, June 30 China's refined oil price increases, favorable macroeconomic U.S. economic recovery, then the external environment also allows us to build good, there is a PIG. So then if, on the short side is one of our debates and air Fangjia Bin Pan Xiangdong to see what your point of view. < br> There are many uncertain factors afternoon
empty Fangjia Bin Pan Xiangdong: As for me, why I think the market outlook, and a little uncertainty, the first aspect of uncertainty is to begin adjusting prices of refined oil, it CPI and the impact of PPI, we can only observe, in the end CPI, PPI will soar even higher, if continued to climb, then the central bank may be forced to further tightening of monetary policy, if monetary policy tight, as we all know, first of aggregate demand is suppressed, the second aspect, the stock market the same funds, will present a shortage, including the size of Africa, as long as the feel of tight monetary policies, it could be cash is king, it could think of selling the issue, so this aspect of the entire market, not a good thing, the inflation rate. The second aspect is that a change in the valuation standard, is now down to this level, many people now think it is a bear market has come, the time since the bear market coming, then the bull market at the time a valuation standard, that is, to the valuation of PE, now converted into a PB to estimate.
empty Fangjia Bin Pan Xiangdong: it, if in accordance with the PB to estimate, then the current 3.2 times, then still a little high, relatively speaking, so there is space, the third aspect is corporate profits, and just when we speak of the valuation, PE to estimate the time, but more importantly have an E, that is corporate profits, if corporate profits, we are seeing now, profits of industrial enterprises, then, just released 1 to May was 20.9%, but the next step, then because of increased oil prices, the cost of running business costs increased, so also there are facing a monetary policy tightening the pressure, so the company's future profits, it may be, we are pessimistic that the expected, next year may go to 8% to 10%, then as a public company, then If negative growth, then what would be a result, so as a PE point of view, that there is no way to estimate the E. So companies to run it, so from one perspective, then also hit the market to a certain extent.
Li Nan: Anyway, that oil prices here is a good macro, and you here, but he considered a reflection of bearish, but also uncertainty to strengthen, then the decline in corporate profits and thus is, may affect employment, may affect the consumer and so on. Let us hear the water dead skin long view multiple guests.
the Chinese economy maintained rapid growth momentum
multi-guest water skin: Because I think that from the central 6b13 working meeting, it is expected that the macroeconomic, we can make proper adjustments, that is the original by the bearish case, you can now become, a careful look.
multi-guest water skin: a macroeconomic The most important to expect the most important, what is worse still for the better, this is the most important thing, then I must remind you what is it? our macro control to prevent excessive heat from the beginning, and now the main keynote changes to ensure a balanced economic growth, to ensure that this year's economic and social indicators to be able to complete, that is, we still emphasize the development, you have to figure out, development is the last word, China's affairs is the case, can not stop, stop to many social conflicts, will focus on the outbreak. then these problems, some social problems are not balanced, and only in the middle of the development process can be resolved, I think the most important one, we said that oil, the price of a reform, or after the liberalization of such controls, it is meant to respect the law of value to our management team, to respect the laws of the direction of the economy began to transform, it is very important. that we begin to grasp revolution and promote production, this is the most important now is that if this premise established, then worry about just those factors which he will subsequently resolve.
multi-guest water skin: I think this is what I am, of course, at this point, we talk about specific, for three reasons, the first fall too much, there is no reason to continue with their meat must go to make life difficult, have to be flesh, flesh finished, or very sore. Secondly, I feel into a reasonable range, just He said that now is the book value, I think that the price-earnings ratio or price-earnings ratio, price-earnings ratio is still useful, we can not speculation, at every turn side to side. what I still believe that the third of China's economy after the meeting in 6b13, still able to maintain a rapid growth trend This is the most critical, if the future is not possible, then throw out all the front, if the economic downturn, and as some people feared, collapse, deterioration, and finished, then we have nothing to talk about earlier, What is a reasonable range, what fall too much, too little may not also fall, and now, this is a look to the future, or backward-looking question, that is, the entire Chinese economy is a basic problem of judging.
stock barometer of the economy in China does not apply to Li Nan
: Empty Fangjia Bin Zhang satellite is to send a representative belonging to midnight, and he from the bottom of my heart to see the midnight.
empty Fangjia Bin Zhang Satellite: But in fact, not see very empty, I think we Chinese stock market, a concept that is China's largest stock market and Chinese economies do not step, is the textbooks say, the stock market is a barometer of the economy in China is not applicable, but China's stock market is what it is that all economic policy is all a reflection of the information, but this is definitely not just the economy, because it is simple, we are in 2001 and 2004, the stock market from 2245 points, fell one breath 1000 points, or 4 years, bear market, we have experienced, when you say China's economic development, and every year a few of the high growth of 10%,
Therefore, China's rapid economic growth, this matter and China the stock market is that it must derive China's stock market rise, does not hold, my personal view it.
the aftermath of the share reform that led to collapse
empty Fangjia Bin Zhang Weixing: my point of view very clear, we can see, that a certain To find the core of the problem, that is what we went through this time? experienced a boom, then experienced a sharp fall, our 2005 to 2007, everyone cheered for the bull market encouraged, and now all of this slump for the current, All the people are anxious, I think the crux of the problem the problem is that the split share structure reform, because I know we are all multi-guest water through the skin, and I to talk about myself. My personal feeling is that this problem is particularly simple , share reform is the core of the problem is that the share reform was to the right price, is a positive, we see the positive result of the surge, but there is a split share structure reform bad, um, have to market what is the size of circulation, to be underweight, This is bad, but we did share reform, I have always thought that the management at the time when the government is defective, we just share reform for three years, and we all understand that, three years, the lock, the first year, less than, lock, climb two I do not quite dare the Chinese stock market, I think me and my empty side view, a little consistency, that you see, why do the gold.
empty Fangjia Bin Zhang Satellite: First, I think inflation, because it is the reason the world So I do gold, gold is the anti inflation, and second, do not stock, because behind the after-effects, I do not know how to break out.
size of the expected stability of non-reduction is the key to
empty Fangjia Bin Zhang Weixing: out now, the aftermath of the share reform that led to crash, in fact, the core issue is very simple, that is if you want to improve China's stock market to a method of reduction is the size of the non, the market is expected to be stable, If the market is expected to instability, the market is not stable, the size of the non-reduction of the problem, is expected to have stabilized, are clear, the market can stabilize, and this is my core, that is the main problem is the size of the non-issue.
empty Fangjia Bin Zhang Weixing: Forecast for Zhang, you see, this is rose above these waves, probably rose nine waves, 1,2,3,4,5 is up to 6100 points, then we see a very clear three-wave decline, it is hard, in truth, contrary to most expectations, fell to 2600 points now, I think it may be very close, but this is definitely not the end, because of what it might be a B wave rally, or a rebound, you will see it.
empty Fangjia Bin Zhang Weixing: high and low, which with the policy-relevant, you see a little high is high, but low, this is probably above 4200 around 4300 or so, this position, another job to this, if not then more than 3,000 points, is that I am such a view may be a future 3 to 5 years time, I think it is such a big shock. over and later to the bull market may be going on a million points.
slow oil market more conducive to the healthy development of reform and multi-guest room
universal: in terms of price reform for refined oil products, change the law, there are two, one is a little radical little one is slightly slower, the short side of the experts representing the oil prices will determine what kind of reform?
empty Fangjia Bin Pan Xiangdong: As I think a little slower, in fact, that is just talked about, that is, we feel if China do not change, then global oil prices could get down, that the China factor is one aspect, in fact, I think, has entered into a great power game, a stage, why the great power game of the stage, and now and we may see, the recent European some of the economic situation is not, I think the U.S. subprime, this time it is fully transferred to Europe, and it put some of their own, would have to be some of the recession, to bear some of the economic problems, losses, have been transferred to Europe, but in fact in Europe, maybe in the second quarter and third quarter, it may be zero growth, this is a big country game, it made a world of inflation, of course, its own is not willing to admit this one, as the U.S., a great devaluation. But if we say so rapidly to a rationalization, then our economy, you can not afford to consider the issue. In fact, I agree with you the same, that is the price, then come to the market pricing, but it has produced, up to now this time, I think you may wish to conduct therapy slowly, that is because the same disease, you slow down and conditioning with traditional Chinese medicine, do not adopt a radical approach, But we also see that this some what slowly conditioning, that is, we own the oil, the future a forecast, you want to go with the words of the European economy, the Indian problem, then some other new industries, industrialization countries have problems, then a demand for oil will drop, a decline in oil demand, then do not support oil prices, international crude oil prices continue, continue to soar even higher.
empty Fangjia Bin Pan Xiangdong: I think fast, then there will be a fall now, if quickly straighten out the words because our industry can not stand, if that is slowly straighten out, then chances are we carry has passed, is the economy to avoid a rapid decline of a very smooth one.
empty Fangjia Bin Pan Xiangdong: that's not to say that the overheated, there are many points of view, that is the next step, then, including the rationale is that in August or September to oil prices, I think this a bit too fast.
multi-guest water skin: the length of time the issue of refined oil, fast or slow to change to change the problem, in fact, one in the end is the time for space, or space for a matter of time, then from the broader market adjustment, this adjustment sharp, nearly 60% of the short term, such a huge adjustment, I think in fact to an overdraft of negative factors, then the space is enough, but the length of time really is not enough, this The length of time it is indeed with the international crude oil futures prices in the end to speculation how much, I now with my editor the following to say, I say you see this is a drama, you see drama, may be such a life, to catch up such a time, how high it actually can be fried? like our index to 6124 points, some say 10,000, some people say that the number of points, he will find a variety of reasons, to find reasons for his rise, as international crude oil prices at this time, each up, looking for varied reasons, and even predicted to rise, also known as the rising ground, as we predicted to rise, so it has to rise, this is extreme bubble phenomenon. then you see what it time will be down.
weak dollar drop in oil prices depends on multiple guests
water skin: one is when oil prices fall, the most important is there is a premise that what a weak dollar, when the strengthening of the formal full This is also the general we expect the second half of September, the people actually gamble, I understand what you mean to hope that the Chinese Government to carry a carry, since it has been to span today, you have carried the first half of came the second half you carry a carry, in fact, our results what is it? in the second half when he should not carry the carry, the worst is, at the wrong time to be carrying a carry, you carry one in most of the carry when you do not carry, that is, people in the oil price crash in the before you crush, is not it?
multi-guest water Paper: You are worried that this meant, so did the second half, I have not seen have to say in favor, after the Olympics that you immediately put the prices of refined oil in one step, because you do not know, the middle of what will happen two months, there is one, if the United States presidential election, this Obama, the Clinton They came to power, it can be determined basically, a war premium in oil prices, this part should be removed. Bush that his administration intends to make war premium, oil shock, more than half are caused by the war, if you put the war premium, the factors removed, then oil prices will naturally be down a lot.
size of the non-reduction of stability will help the stock market higher
leather multi-guest water: that by means of satellite space Fangjia Bin Zhang, because the air on the share reform Fangjia Bin Zhang Weixing is the soft spot, he meant that as also Xiao Xiao He also lost, with soaring, there is definitely a crash, we are planing to go this factor did not say what you mean is that if the share reform is now expected, the size of the relative stability of non-locking , then the stock market could have gone up.
empty Fangjia Bin Zhang Satellite: Satellite of
air Fangjia Bin Zhang: China's stock market will be particularly clear, because the Chinese do not particularly bad, there is no special Well, that changes in the international arena so much, in fact, in China, we fast, we have our own digestion, but although there are problems, China's economy great, the stock market is our economy, a small part, must understand clearly this problem, because our ownership structure in this arrayed, some of our country is about 60% of the shares that we now account for the proportion of people, including the Fund 30% 30% 60% of control you have over how to adjust all tone, simply does not matter, so the core issue
empty Fangjia Bin Zhang satellite: we only say that the stock market crash, ups and downs, and this completely and we have a close relationship between the share reform.
empty Fangjia Bin Zhang Weixing: tradable reform has been done, now is the size of the non-issue still not resolved.
Li Nan: Empty Fangjia Bin Zhang said the satellite is not a large non-reduction, is the retail of life imprisonment.
empty Fangjia Bin Zhang satellites: the size of non- The problem now is that all the problems, especially for a right investors, he said, I am very afraid of me afterwards, he said the size of all non-large together a dozen non-small non-trillion, you know, dozens of trillion, I say we put all the bank deposits of investors to buy out all these stocks are not enough, you will find it too much of power is not the right size and too much money, too little money here This imbalance of power, that there is no way to get it, of course, we can understand.
empty Fangjia Bin Zhang Satellite: Do you think it will not all holdings of this not all the holdings, it will not be that money sense, but I can tell you that all of the price formation must be exchanged, the biggest problem now is that you do not have the size of non-exchange, the price can not be sure, that I actually, my view is view? those from the past to our experience, multi-skin You say you guests what the water price-earnings ratio, what are the markets that fell off the book value, they begin to find the concept of book value, the market go up to find the concept of price-earnings ratio, are blind to find , there is no reason, I tell you what the core issue, that we are circulation market today, and never seen, multi-guest water skin you seen it? you live so much, have you seen circulation market the right, no, I have not seen.
multi-guest water skin: I've seen stock tradable.
empty Fangjia Bin Zhang satellites: individual stocks does not work, according to individual stocks is called a case, we call market, we are not talking about stocks, we are talking about is the market, so the market is.
multi-guest water skins: You're not at all true that we who have never seen, but we who have never seen things, how can you be so sure, it must be so developed.
empty Fangjia Bin Zhang Satellite: No, I said, there is a problem to occur.
multi-guest water skin: you our government so you do not have confidence
empty Fangjia Bin Zhang satellites: the stock is tradable structure. to trading rules, stock structure, earnings level, the level of book value, in China, how much soil in the end, you do not say.
empty Fangjia Bin Zhang Weixing: do we have encountered difficulties, the Commission did not dare to say, the SAC did not dare to say, we do not dare say fund investors, began circulation, circulation of the era , and in the end what level? We can only learn from the United States, drawing in Europe, drawing in Hong Kong, they are tradable market, they tell us about the market fluctuations in the price-earnings ratio of a level 5 times to 15 times in between the bear market the time may be 5 times the Satellite
empty Fangjia Bin Zhang: A-share market and so we macroeconomic does not matter, the size of the split share structure reform and a non-problem to solve, no problem with 4,000 points on the stock market.
multiple guests Water Paper: you mean the size of Africa is expected to bring in this uncertain how to solve?
empty Fangjia Bin Zhang Weixing: This is not the question we explore, because you are not the SFC, I am not the SASAC I tell you, you can not solve this problem.
multi-guest water skins: You mean, the size of the problem or can not be resolved.
empty Fangjia Bin Zhang Weixing: can be resolved.
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